Rogue OM Squad/ROMSIII Dead Thread 5
| Name | Post | |
|---|---|---|
| Swordmaster | I don't know if I'm doing this right - somebody correct me if i break something ><
Hi! It's [not so] great to be here; I'm actually surprised that V and Sarbear are rogues - I though Sarbear would have a very low chance of being picked as a rogue this time around. That said, who was the third rogue that we got? Or was it just me imagining things when I was reading through this [extremely long] thread? | |
| Abiona | I'm agreeing SO HARD right now, eguee. Makes me so mad at myself for that original FOS post..... Hi, Swordmaster!!! I'm very surprised it took me so long to be banned and sent here. And no, you're not breaking anything (that I can see.) Swordholder was the third. The Rogues banned him to cut losses. (See the spoilers, I believe.) | |
| QoT | This could actually work out for the best. If MM gets lynched, hopefully that lends additional cadence to her thinking (To paraphrase, "remember, the rogues don't have to be antagonists"), and that will be the key to a town victory. Of course, it'd be better if she's not lynched, as she appears to have her head on straight. | |
| Abiona | Oujou needs to come back FAST. Of course, based on the posts within the last few minutes, I don't think V. realizes that his proxy has fallen to her, so maybe we'll get lucky. | |
| Mum | Aye, Abi, Oujou needs to be here. I highly doubt V forgot about the proxy. She's too clever for that. She may purposely be holding it back--maybe to "just remember" in time for the final vote for MM. Using it now might come back to haunt her. I wish MM had gone ahead and made a post furthering her thoughts before logging off. As it is, she could be lynched before ever having a chance to do so.
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| Sasha | There's that PM again, giving more credibility to V. Otherwise, Marinated might have followed through. And again, I hate all this "I need to organize my thoughts better... I'll post later." | |
| Zandia | Maybe it *will* work out for the best. If V does take the proxy, then she will seem more suspicious (since some have low FoS on her now), and if she lets the proxy die, she'll be on the hook for letting O die (since there will no longer be replacements), and if O comes back, hopefully he'll continue his SB attack. | |
| Mum | Oh dear, that is not at all what I had hoped to hear from MM. *starts plucking the gray hair*
Lyaka, hope you're filling all the water balloons for us to throw this round. Looks like we'll need them. We need to all send mental vibes to Elliania at the same time to keep looking at the SH votes. She said herself that the Rogues are the ones who didn't vote for him. Not sure who Ellie is.
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| Sasha | Hey! It's a party! *Grabs a lime drink* They're not looking at who isn't talking (Sarbear). Who's Ellie?
OK, so now they're putting FOSs on Marinated. The same Marinated who voted for Ghadhean 5 put of 6 rounds. Why would a Rogue vote for someone they knew was innocent 4 times in a row? Wouldn't that be a liiiiittle suspicious? | |
| QoT | No, it would be sensible--in fact, it's one of the best ways for the rogues to win. (As I said above, play daytime like an innocent, nighttime like a rogue.) Ghadhean was lynched, and was evidently thus suspicious. Going after suspicious people makes you look less suspicious. | |
| Mum | Hee, I could never play the part of a Rogue. People would see through me so easily. | |
| Zandia | I wish they would all realize that V's name keeps comming up... =/ | |
| Mum | Aye, Zandia, and that Sarbear has been swept under the rug after having so many suspect her. | |
| Hohum | I'll tell you what ... laying low for the first half of the game seems like the way to go. Rogue or not next game, I'm just going to vote when necessary, not post as much so I can actually make it to the end of one of the games. Hohum = 0/3 | |
| Zandia | Lol! I was thinking the same thing! | |
| Abiona | I kind of hope we have at least one "speshul" role next game, at least, I do if someone responsible gets it, sometimes I feel a detective (password stealer) can be too much, but at least a doctor. Also, Liz mentioned something about perhaps letting us run the game in the Locker and disabling edit there. I thought it was an interesting idea. | |
| Ghadhean | Hullo, ghosties! The town is hopeless, but I was way off meself. I think all this PM business is some seriously bad mojo. And people's thinking seems so inflexible, basing FOSes based on my supposed guilt, for example. Anyway, no regrets, and I hope they turn it around. | |
| Sasha | Ghad, you got screwed. I have no idea why they locked on you as much as they did, and it wasn't Rogues, either.
Laying low only helps if you wantg to survive, not win. | |
| raNa | Gah, I'm angry at myself for letting SB off the hook in that round and moving on to Greyta. Oh, and I just checked those lists I talked about in my first post (the reason I fingered SB), and I was right about there being three rogues. Swordholder is on all three too. Lot of good that does me though, since I'm dead :P. And sorry Ghad, I tried to save you (even if it was half-hearted the second time). | |
| Abiona | Aaaand Sarbear kills MM. Brilliant. Remember my death scene, the whole bit with the pie crust, the limes and the laptop? I'm so doing that exact scene right now, complete with bigarse rolling pin. | |
| Sasha | I think this game is lost, despite my most optimistic outlooks. The Rogues have done a great job. V is being proactive, Sarbear is just hanging back. 7 townies left, they get 3 more shots. Marinated's got the target on his/her back. Mary painted it on her own back with QoTs PM. At this point they're just looking for a reason to point. The PM was the reason. Gah. The Rogues aren't going to be so overt. | |
| Mum | [Mum] Oh surely the town will look more seriously at SB. What a shame Oujou was away for this last round. It might have made a difference, but real life must come first sometimes.
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| Lyaka | I'm afraid I agree with all the doomsaying... the town is completely hosed. But there doesn't seem to be a good way out of this dilemma. What am I supposed to think? "Next game, I'm going to keep my mouth shut so the Rogues can't ban all the actives... and lynch others who do the same, because that's a Rogue strategy!" We just can't have it both ways, argh.
In other news, welcome MeegerMary to the Island o' Limes. | |
| Mum | I agree Lyaka, they're in a tough situation. And each of us can find things we might have/could have/should have done different. Guess that's what I find so interesting about this game. *hands lime drink to Mary* Here's hoping our team will still come through! A toast to everyone here! | |
| Abiona | [Abiona] *spits and curses* They banned Oujou. Town loses. Easy as that. How PG-13 do we have to be here, 'cos I have some choice words I'm really holding back. | |
| Mum | Awww, Abi, don't get down yet. The fat lady hasn't sung. Win or lose, I, for one, had a lot of fun playing this game and enjoyed getting to know some of ye! | |
| Abiona | The game was indeed a blast, the last few rounds were just disappointing. Though, honestly, I expected to be banned long before this. I'm concerned that the backbiting will make this easier for at least one of the rogues to slip through til the end, though. If there were just one rogue left at this point, I'd be pretty optimistic, but with two, I think our poor little town is really going to have to shape up fast for there to be a good chance. | |
| Mum | I wish they would do what the town did the last game at this point. Everyone lay out a list and compare notes. Who knows, some of them may have V and SB and just haven't expressed it so openly yet. It might help them, unless they're all close-minded about it. It would give them more time to think instead of just coming to a fast vote. The way they're doing it now allows the Rogues to just vote with them and secure the lynch without any chance to change their minds. Course, hee, I may just be grasping at straws for them.
On another note, you mentioned earlier about next game having a doctor in it. I know Shaimus was planning something a little different next game. How does the strategy work with that as I was at a total loss in game 3 on how to work with it and would like a better understanding of it before the next game. | |
| Sasha | I swear... next game I'm immediately voting for ANYONE who sends out PMs at the first whiff of one. Even if it's to me. | |
| Argemone | Hi all! How is it that you put in the separator things?
Also, if there are any rogues reading this, why did you ban me? I never could figure that one out.. I'll try and read this thread properly soon, when I have the time (where'd my weekend go?) But from a skim I couldn't see the answer... | |
| Sasha | Don't think there was an answer, Arge. I suspect it was because they were banning the most (or 2nd) most active every round... until they banned SH to cover up his Rogueness. After that, they prob banned you just to make it look like they were changing the pattern.
Banning O... c'mon... SOMEONE pick up on the fact he voted for Sarbear for 3 straight rounds... That may have been a huuuuge slip to do that. If they can get one of the two of them this round, it'll be 6 on 1. Of course, I still don't have much faith in that happening. | |
| Argemone | Ah right - maybe I'll get an answer when it's all over. I only started posting more to try and get less FOS on myself - still, had to post more to get people to point FOI at me, to point themselves towards other people (as I'm innocent).
Now I've read who all the rogues are, it all seems so obvious - anything they say in the main thread just shouts out rogue to me - although I'm willing to bet I wouldn't see it if I was still playing. I did feel this game was a lot harder than the last game - I much preferred the game with the twists than this straight forward game. Without huge mistakes from the rogues, it does seem like an almost impossible task to actually track any of the rogues down. | |
| Abiona | In forum Mafia, I'm assuming that instead of the rogues PMing the banned directly, the first PM their choice to the mod during the night, ban period or what you may call it. The doctor picks who they want to protect that round in the same manner, each must do so within the time deadline. If the doctor and the rogues picked the same person, the mod is typically the one to announce that no one died or was banned, and it's also up to the mod as to whether, if the doctor fails, the banned player gets a PM from the rogues, or if the mod announces it themselves, or however they want to do it. | |
| MeegerMary | Gah! color me stupid. Someone pass me a lime drink and make sure its extra limey. I need it after all this. Unfortunatley, Sarbear didnt click for me until it was already too late and she placed the deciding vote. So I wasn't surprised to learn she is in fact a rogue. Going back and looking at everything with all this new information makes it all seem so clear all along. Oh well, heres to the next game!
Oh and Abiona, stop feeling bad about that FOS on me, you were on my guess the rogues list for round 5. ;) | |
| Abiona | Haha! <3 I was wondering who it was that voted for me there! Shaimus said that everyone was voted for at least once. Also, I think next game, it'd be cool to do a ventrilo chat one night for the dead 'uns. Also, can someone explain to me what the heck it was I did that made me look so darn innocent that I ever only had two recorded FOS'es? As many times as I went barking up the wrong tree, I'm amazed. | |
| MeegerMary | One of the reasons I put you on that list was because you seemed very inconspicuous to me. Cant remember what my reasoning was at the time, but I was watchin ya for awhile there. :D | |
| Sasha | There's a public Vent server at ventrilo4.ecgnetwork.com port 3796. Anyone is welcome there at any time. For next game, I also know other servers, and I'm sure whomever is lynched first could find one, too.
Please, someone think about why O was banned before V puts together a "reason". | |
| Eguee | Go Greyta for looking up the reasons O was banned! | |
| Hohum | Secret Vent Channels? I smell Sasha being a rogue already... | |
| Lyaka | Hehehehhe.
Hmm... PG-13? All those under thirteen, hands up. No one going to admit they've broken the TOS? Then if you can say it on broadcast ([i]not[/i] cable, dear lord) you can say it here. | |
| Sasha | Dammit, V's good. I'm with Mum, I could never be a Rogue. After two rounds, I'd be like... ME!! It's me. I'm a Rogue. Vote for me right now, I can't take it anymore. | |
| Mum | Hopefully Shaimus doesn't get any ideas and make me one either just so he can point and laugh. And yes, Vireyda is a sharp cookie. However, pointing out how smart the Rogues were in doing that (creating their own account) just might ring some bells for some. Double the lime in all the drinks today I say! | |
| Taelac | Still reading along when I can, but not much to say, considering most of it is R rated right now. Also, under a massive new order at work, so probably mostly off the radar. /e grabs a lime drink, adds more rum, and goes back to the trenches. | |
| Sasha | Double the lime? TRIPLE the rum!!! I need it watching the endgame play out. | |
| Mum | *rustles around in all the cabinets finding more rum* It's so hard to watch when we want the right things to happen and happen now. And why has no one brought up that Sarbear barely shows up? *kicks puter and goes back to sewing* | |
| Sasha | O did, and now he's gone. Why WON'T they consider WHY they broke the pattern... again? &*$& the $#%&@# ^$&#@&#. &%$#& &$#& &$#& &$#& &$#!!! | |
| Mum | Strange things going on here. I made a post after Taelac that completely disappeared. Oh well. Come to think of it, more than one post went away. Too much rum? | |
| Sasha | I think it was inadvertantly deleted. I went back and found it. No need to stop drinking. =p | |
| Mum | Geesh---here I thought I swigged too much cooking sherry making my bistro pork. Phew, now I feel better and can continue sipping---err, I mean cooking. *grins* | |
| Abiona | No kidding about the endgame. I'm having a serious issue reading the thread, it makes my blood pressure spike WAY too much. Oh, and Mum, a quote for you from one of my very favorite chefs: "I love cooking with wine! Sometimes I even put it in the food!" | |
| Mum | Open letter to Elliania
Dear Elli, Please notice that when you brought up townies are frustrated and not posting that Sarbear, who has been waaaay too quiet, spoke up and said how frustrated she is. Why didn't she say it sooner? That is all. Best of luck, Mum Oh Abi, aye, cooking with wine is fantastic! And the food isn't bad either! Tomorrow I'm making beer bread. Want to join me? | |
| Abiona | Sounds fabulous! I went on a baking binge this weekend already... :-D And just added more to it, I have dough for more bread rising. Lord, but I can't get rid of the baking craving. Oh, and I'm about to haunt the thread and personally attempt to strangle the people going for Selgnij. Seriously. It's a pity I'm non-corporeal. | |
| Lyaka | ::backing up the truck:: new rum delivery is here, guys. It's a knockoff brand though... I was going for Captain Morgan, but I seem to have gotten something called "Captain Sparrow" instead. It still tastes pretty good, though, so drink up, me hearties, yo ho. (And forgive yer mod, for she loves her little jokes.)
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| Abiona | Just a point, we could end up with a quick evening game of chatroom mafia if enough people were interested, and it looks like the forum game will be strung out enough, modeling directly off of the real life system. Oh boy. Now everyone's pointing fingers at the wrong people. Sarbear and Vireyda must be sitting back and laughing. | |
| Ghadhean | <[Sasha] Double the lime? TRIPLE the rum!!!> Ye read my freaking mind. I gotta say, Vireyda was completely off my radar, and I think she still would be. I'm not sure what it would take to catch a rogue like that. | |
| Zandia | All it would take would be some quick reviews of the known rogues' post to link to V. I'm still kicking myself for not mentioning it before I got banned, but I feared no one would listen. QoT says she also had an FoS on V, so IF I would have said something, maybe others would have contributed their bit o' FoS. ::Sighs:: Oh, well. Pass the rum and limes....and hold the rum. | |
| Swordmaster | But so many people had an FOS QoT, that most of her FOS's ended up being brushed off by pointing the FOH at QoT. Also, the fact that she was so... tarty (?) is one of the major reasons [I think] she got lynched, not because she was particularly suspicious. | |
| Mum | *giggles* Had so much rum I never logged out of here last night. Good morning. Looks like the town will help the Rogues with arguing over finer points. If they want to do that, why don't they remember that Seg brought up V's booch in disassociating herself with the town? | |
| Sasha | QoT said she had lots of things... can someone show me where in the thread she pointed at V? SM had it right as to why she got lynched. Like I've said before, we should have lynched her a lot sooner rather than someone who was more helpful. Yes, I'm bitter.
V and SB have it now. They just have to let the town point fingers at who "looks" suspicious. Ding! Easy win. Um, Mum, what booch? | |
| Mum | Looking for link. Here's the post:http://forums.puzzlepirates.com/community/mvnforum/viewthread?p=1169918#1169918
In the first paragraph, she uses the word "them" when referring to the town. Selg pointed it out in his post below hers, but lets her explain it away as a typo. Good grief. Bye bye Selg. Wonder who will seal it? | |
| Sasha | Gah. V is playing the Helpful Rogue SO WELL.... I even trip over her when I edit the wiki. >< | |
| MeegerMary | V was a complete shock for me. Shes playing such a great name.
this is just a too perfect setup for the rogues. with one vote left until the lynch is official and two people saying they are heading off to bed intending to post more tommorow, it gives sarbear the perfect opportunity once again to swoop in and cast that final vote before anyone knows what happened. | |
| Sasha | I hate the whole "I'm going to bed and posting tomorrow" thing. If you want to post something, for crying out loud, POST MORE NOW *ahem, ABI*. Sarbear won't cast the final vote 2 rounds in a row... will she?
Btw... the odds that 4 players would each have votes and that NONE of them would be a Rogue, assuming all things equal, is 5-in-18, if anyone cares. The Rogues are even beating the odds like that. Maybe Mari should go... here she is voting for an Innocent first... again. That's why I was guessing her earlier. Mari voted first for Selg, QoT, Sam (that's not bad =p), Flutie, and 2nd for Ally/Pros and BC. She jumps in quick, which acts as a GREAT smokescreen for the Rogues to follow behind. SB voted 4th behind M's 2nd vote for BC, V followed right behind the Flutie vote, and followed right behind in this round. Bah. I'm just seeing things because I want to. Like in the two rounds that lynches were missed... neither voted in the SH miss, and both voted for other ppl in the R10 miss. Very clever.
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| Abiona | *hangs her head in shame* | |
| Mum | If Sarbear votes this one, that will make 3 times in a row. Pretty risky methinks, but she's been allowed to lay low for so long, it might work. V is so convincing for the town. Harrr, they will be so shocked when they find out. We better have plenty of lime and rum for them...they'll need it!
Oh no---Greyta don't-------*cries and bangs head on keyboard* | |
| MeegerMary | Noooooooooo! of all the people left, why oh why did she have to choose V?
And youre right, i forgot that she had done that twice already. it would make her look doubly suspicious if she did it again, even with all the excuses she could make up for it. though now that V has greyta's proxy shes got the perfect alibi for placing that last vote with having already done so in her own name. | |
| Flutie | If greyta gets banned, wouldnt this be the second banning in a row that V has had the proxy then poof. BANNED? If so, that seems very ROGUE to me. | |
| Lyaka | Wow. Just... wow. Vireyda's post on the photobucket URLs is genius. The woman (man? I think V's a she... whoa, OotS moment) is absolutely brilliant. That's amazing. I would be 100% convinced of her innocence if I were still playing. Victory for the Rogues with Vireyda as Last Man Standing. Even if they catch Sarbear they'll never catch her.
At this point, if I were V or Sar, I'd tell Sar to go ahead and cast that last vote if it were necessary, even though it's the third time in a row. Now that's not strictly necessary since V can use Greyta's proxy instead, but even so, I think if necessary a one-to-one Sar-to-Innocent trade is a good move for the Rogues. V is so well embedded that Sarbear's greatest value right now might lie in being a sacrificial Rogue. Flutie- huh? Greyta's not going to get banned. V already has the proxy. | |
| Flutie | No, doesnt V have Greyta as a proxy? If so, it can possibly be like last time except last time V fell into the proxy with the lynch and got Oujou's proxy, then he got banned. Just thinking it can happen again. | |
| Mum | I can't imagine Greyta ever getting banned. She is V's best friend right now. Greyta has a big FOI on V and has had it since very early in the game.
I see more posts have disappeared. I don't have the understanding of this to know how it happens or how to fix it. Shaimus and at least 2-3 others posts were here this morning. Lyaka, I had thought about that possibility---V could convince the town to lynch Sarbear, be a hero, and then she'd sail with no chance whatsoever of getting caught. | |
| Oujou | Hey Guys. Just checking in with the dead thread.
I KNEW I was right about Sarbear, but V... I think I had her in my Round5 list but I can't remember now and I can't find the PM. It was mainly because I was voting for those who seemed benign... I hope the town listens to me... I'd also be interested to see who got the references in my Ban Scene... I can think of about four major ones, and a couple of minor ones. Lemme know what you saw. | |
| Ghadhean | I found these posts in the old revisions:
That said, V has been playing a great game. If I was still alive, I'd rank V as one of the least likely to be a rogue - she's only made a few slip-ups, and those she has managed to cover up reasonably well, if the remaining townies haven't already done it for her.
Do yer have any questions or comments on the actual game itself? I would have thought that people would have used proxies a little more in the early rounds as a tool to sift information
Shaimus, how many Rogues did the closest person identify? I'll be much surprised if anyone got more than two. At least I was right about their being five total...
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| Shaimus | I will have to check my stats kept elsewhere
but I recall it as being three at most in R5 and again 3 in R9 | |
| Oujou | You know, it may just be a product of my never having played online mafia, but I never even thought that proxies might make an interesting information-gathering tool. *Tries to figure out how it would work* | |
| Swordmaster | I think Prosperity's 2-week long proxy kind of put people off laying suspicion on others because of their proxies, since it turned out that she was innocent. | |
| Zandia | Woot!!! Go Mari!!! | |
| MeegerMary | A glimmer of hope. Run with it mari run with it! | |
| Swordmaster | I hope the other townies listen to her... but I have a funny feeling that V will turn the town against GB... | |
| Eguee | [caps] WOOO HOOO GREATBOB! (AND MARI TOO!) [/caps] | |
| Mum | *jumps up and down with excitement* Go GreatBob!!!!!!! Make them all think about it! | |
| Lyaka | I had this two-hour stretch when I couldn't figure out why someone thought the game might be over. 7 people left... a lynch makes 6... two Rogues left max... so you're good, right? It literally took two hours to realize they didn't know about SH. ugh. ::headdesk:: Fortunately, I refrained from posting in the main thread!
And... GO! GO! TOW-NIES! TOW-NIES! | |
| Flutie | /me screams in delight FINALLY stuff is happening. Lets hope the remaining innocents agree and poof, the town can win. I love when stuff like this happens when I'm asleep. | |
| Elliania | Hey guys, got some limes left over for me? I have to say... in the end I had absolutely no clue who might be a Rogue. Sarbear used to be on my FOS list, but after my failure with MM I was too scared to pursue it much. And Vireyda? Very nice and under the radar. Should have known, that those would be the Rogues...
Anyway, they still have a chance. I think they will get Sarbear at least. GO TOWN :) | |
| Mum | Plenty of limes left for ye Elliania. Rum has been doubled for the end game now, so enjoy! Hopefully the innocents will follow GB right now. Really hope Vireyda doesn't hop on to try to look innocent. If they really think SH was a Rogue, they could go back and see V's statement which gave both her and SH proof of innocence (Titan's lynch). If not, I fear that even if they go after SB, they'll look at Greyta next as V can be verrrrry convincing. The silence right now really gets to me. | |
| Sasha | BOO-YA!!! GB hit it on the head!!! The silence is because SB and V are on verrrry thin ice atm, and can't respond too quickly.
If they can think back to the Sam/Titan FOSs, they'll realize that GB has a massive FOI on him. I can't believe that he wasn't already banned a long time ago because of that. Glad to see that Mari picked up on what I said a little bit ago about V's and SB's votes in the two Rogue lynchings. Morgan's done that before... I had to add posts back in as well. Please watch out. =) STILL nothing... I think they're afraid to say anything right now. | |
| Mum | I am surprised Mari hasn't gone ahead and voted, unless she's afraid of the connection already made between her and GB. Where's Marinated though? And Nessie? Oh, the suspense is killing me. *goes to get another drink from Apollo*
This could really get interesting if V is honest about needing a proxy and has no one to leave it to if they go ahead and vote off SB. I'm thinking she's only saying she needs a proxy to make herself look innocent? Would have thought though that it'd been easier to just target SB first herself, but, hehe, GB beat her to it. On the other hand, if she really needs a proxy, maybe SB will target her to look innocent? Oh, the dilemma and the suspense. This is when all my gray hair disappears....one by one. | |
| Sasha | I think she's not on right now... doesn't she tend to post at night, Pirate time?
Funny, mine comes out in clumps, usually in my hands. =P | |
| Mum | Uh, maybe ye haven't seen the next page? V and Bob have both posted again. | |
| Sasha | Just saw it! GO BOB!!! Latch on to her!!!! Maybe he'll vote her instead?
In white: "Lets watch Vireyda give her proxy to Sarbear or Greyta now..." HA!!! The basic tone is "I *want* to do something to help, but its just too hard." Greyta voted for SB when 4 others did... the other 3 are gone now. 2 othem were banned. Hmm... lol. I dunno... I think it'll be Marinated or Nessmonster next. Someone who hasn't caused a stir. Banning Greyta doesn't make sense, becauseshe looks suspicious atm. Maybe Marinated... does voting for Ghadhean 5 out of 6 rounds make her more or less suspicious? Don't worry about the formatting, we'll get it fixed. Or... Greyta will be banned BECAUSE of the FOI on V. I'll stay with Marin or Nessie for ban. GB is too hot to ban right now. He hit the nail too hard. If I were Rogue, I'd always ban either the most outspoken player (like me, Taelac, you) or the most innocent, especially in the end. Keep the ones alive that look the most innocent. Based on that, I'd hit... hmmm. I take it back. I'd hit Greyta. Confuse the hell out of them. Like I said, and I'm holding to it, if I'm in the next game, I'm straight up telling everyone before anything is assigned, ANYONE sending a PM is IMMEDIATELY on my FOS list. Rogues can use it as a diversion, Innocents don't really know what they're talking about or who they're sending it too. They get two swings at this if they miss. On the other hand, I could actually see them banning one of them to make the other look more innocent, as if GB was wrong about the FOSs. That would only happen if they both survive this round, obviously. The town has a 4/7 (57%) chance of hitting a Rogue one of the next two rounds. Let's look at odds for the rest of the game. There are 6 possibilities (hit = H, miss = M): HH - town wins - 2/35 HMH - town wins - 8/105 MHH - town wins - 2/21 HMM - rogues win - 16/105 MHM - rogues win - 4/21 MM - rogues win - 3/7 Town wins - 22.9% Rogues win - 77.1% Assuming a totally even chance. I'm bored, and excited. Now. If they HIT... H - town wins - 1/5 MH - town wins - 4/15 MM - rogues win - 8/15 Town wins - 46.7% Rogues win - 53.3%
M - 3/5 HH - 2/15 HM - 4/15 Town wins - 13.3% Rogues win - 86.7% But remember... we've been in the hole the whole game. The odds have never been in our favor that we'd hit ALL of them. |
