User:Lofwyr/Sandbox/Jinxed Idol Speculation

Things we KNOW about it

 * You can get it at any ocean.
 * It is awarded upon log in.
 * It was not awarded to pirates directly after the patch (makes us assume it has to do with a recent activity).
 * Unsubbed pirates can get it.
 * All the pirates who have it assume that they don't know how they got it.

Some pirates who are known to have received it
''Please use the international date format yyyy-mm-dd. That other one only works for North America.'' ''Please note this is not a exhaustive list, and is compiled from the discussion thread. Some information is missing, also dates used here as recieved are speculative based on the dates of the releavant posts, please edit accordingly, remaining in date order.''
 * Twilah (Meridian) - 2014-02-05
 * Grumbles (Viridian) - 2011-03-14 [20:00:20] (17:00:20 Game Time)
 * Jomamma (Sage) - 2010-12-15 (12:34 Game Time)
 * BellBlue - (Ice) - 2010-11-19
 * Yarrmatey- (Cobalt)- 2010-06-7
 * Airion (Midnight) - 2009-11-20
 * Lewton(Crimson) - 2009-02-07
 * Beat (Opal) - 2009-02-07
 * Daviejones (Ice) - 2008-03-07
 * Blackcannons (Sage) 2009-11-20
 * Klorel (Ice) - 2008-11-25
 * Blundarbus (Cobalt) - 2008-03-12
 * Badfish (Opal) - 2008-03-12
 * Ji (Viridian) - 2008-03-13
 * Chimira (Hunter) - 2008-03-13
 * Whitepointer (Cobalt) - 2008-03-14
 * fonseca (Hunter) - 2008-03-15
 * Twistedtwist (Sage) -2008-03-15
 * Floatingjenn (Midnight) - 2008-03-16
 * Warmapplepie (Hunter) - 2008-03-17
 * Imported (Cobalt) - 2008-03-16
 * Topgun (Midnight) - 2008-03-17
 * Canedias (Hunter) - 2008-03-18
 * Toemoesh (Hunter) - 2008-03-18
 * (Quickslvr) (?) - 2008-03-18(19)
 * Nuemenor (Midnight) - 2008-03-19
 * Crowe (Ice) - 2008-03-19
 * Misael (Hunter) - 2008-03-20
 * Elayne (Opal) - 2008-03-21
 * Platia (Opal) - 2008-03-??
 * Owen (Opal) - 2008-03-??
 * tfl (Opal) - 2008-03-??
 * Cinquains (Hunter) - 2008-03-22
 * (Anon) (?) - 2008-03-24
 * Hizzo (Cobalt) - 2008-03-24
 * Anon (?) (?) - (Misterblonde)
 * Aubergine (Ice) - 2008-03-25
 * Anonymous labour alt of Skymike (sage) - 2008-03-25
 * Spaded (Midnight) - 2008-03-28 (but "a few days ago")
 * Gengarpirate (Midnight) - 2008-03-30
 * Shuktikajain (Sage) - 2008-04-04
 * Pinkpiglet (Sage) - 2008-04-06
 * Bootyhuntor (Sage) - 2008-04-09
 * Preciosa (Hunter) - 2008-04-14
 * Loola (Cobalt) - 2008-04-16
 * Armillaria (Ice) - 2008-05-05
 * Armillaria (Opal) - 2009-04-25 (out of order since this is my second one)
 * Baccus (Cobalt) - ?
 * Aria (Midnight) - 2008-05-17
 * Klostro (Viridian) - 2008-05-20
 * Winadmin (Midnight) 2008-05-22
 * Sandwitch (Midnight) - 2008-05-27
 * Caroleen (Midnight) 2008-05-24
 * Alastriona (Midnight) - 2008-06-3
 * Pinkpimp (Hunter) - 2008-06-06
 * Excal (Sage) 2008-06-14
 * Puppet - Sharktail's alt (Sage) - 2008-06-14
 * Lissaboo (Cobalt) - 2008-06-16
 * Tyrna (Malachite) 2010-06-09
 * Kickhead (Malachite) 2008-06-18
 * Smashmartian (Malachite) 2008-06-18
 * Eyros (Viridian) - (Viridian) 2008-06-24
 * Hurly (Viridian) - ??
 * Maxtrie (Cobalt) 2008-07-03
 * Silverking (Viridian) - date unknown
 * Bge (Sage) - 2008-10-03
 * Tams (Cobalt) 2008-10-08
 * markoll (hunter) 2008 10 15
 * Sharktail (Ice) - 2008-11-19
 * Aquatics (Hunter) 2009-01-14
 * Thorim (Midnight) 2009-06-13
 * Yarrmatey (Cobalt) 2009-9-22
 * Slushies (Hunter) 2009-11-10
 * Zengo (Hunter) - 2009-11-08
 * Malconi (Sage) - 2009-11-29
 * Etrigan (sage) 2010-1-20
 * Tigrelord (midinight) date unknown
 * Luckylad (viridian) date unknown
 * JustinRules (Midnight) 2010/01/29 Exactly 12:00 Login (Pirate Time)
 * Medea (Midnight) 2010/03/04
 * Larsa (Ice) 2011/08/09 - Exactly 2:00 AM (Game Time), Dusted 3 fish on log in too.
 * Rumdum (Hunter) - date unkinown
 * Drajl (Hunter) - date unkinown
 * Alfwyn (Crimson) - 2010-06-08, Alfwyn (Ice) - 2011-02-18 ~10:21AM
 * Ryujin (Midnight) - 2010-07-15 at 09:40:00 PST
 * Crazyflasher (Sage) 2010/09/21

Things which, as standalone events, do NOT trigger it
''The events listed in this section are have been tested to see if they are sole triggers for the trophy, and have been eliminated. They may still be in contention for combinations of events and/or circumstances if the trophy turns out to have multiple triggers.''

These broad categories of activities, events and status have been eliminated as potential triggers for the trophy:
 * Any direct connection to tourneys Chimira only went to Atlantis in previous login session
 * Any direct connection to Atlantis Whitepointer is unsubbed and got one
 * We can also conclude it has nothing to do with ownage of ships/stalls and rank - unsubbed alt got one
 * No relationship to foraging (http://forums.puzzlepirates.com/community/mvnforum/viewthread?thread=83233&offset=400#1447396)
 * No relationship to Gems (http://forums.puzzlepirates.com/community/mvnforum/viewthread?thread=83233&offset=450#1448396)
 * Anything to do with playing Hearts or Spades Pirate has never played them
 * Anything to do with hearties Whitepointer has never had any hearties
 * Anything to do with crew or flag membership Whitepointer has no crew
 * The jinxed idol was more commonly handed out to pirates who played on the Crimson Ocean, before it was removed.

These more specific events have also been eliminated: given that I passed very little money.-Only have a sloop.
 * Number of ships you own that have been sunk Blundarbus has never had any of his own ships sunk
 * Any connection to (Atlantis) Booty division It was awarded pre-divvy at least to one pirate
 * Sublime/Able stats
 * Logging off after losing a Tourney match before tourney ended (http://forums.puzzlepirates.com/community/mvnforum/viewthread?thread=83233&offset=400#1444782)
 * Logging off from game before a tourney you are signed up starts (http://forums.puzzlepirates.com/community/mvnforum/viewthread?thread=83233&offset=400#1444856)
 * Logging off during/after/between rounds of a tourney (http://forums.puzzlepirates.com/community/mvnforum/viewthread?thread=83233&offset=400#1446268)
 * Losing to a pirate in tourney round #1 who afterwards won tourney: (http://forums.puzzlepirates.com/community/mvnforum/viewthread?thread=83233&offset=400#1448252)
 * Winning all battles but no booty to divide (http://forums.puzzlepirates.com/community/mvnforum/viewthread?thread=83233&offset=450#1448763)
 * re-engaging a lost fight and lose again (http://forums.puzzlepirates.com/community/mvnforum/viewthread?thread=83233&offset=450#1451017)
 * re-engaging a lost fight and win it (Just tested)
 * getting deleted from hearty list while off-line (Just tested)
 * booching on 3 different puzzles in one session
 * making stats on 2 puzzles go down in one session
 * Being in a PvP that triggered the warning for the black ship (happened to me) --Lesleywalker 04:59, 23 March 2008 (PDT)
 * Being on board a vessel that was Black-Shipped Pirate has never been black-shipped
 * Promotional tie-in, possibly with myspace.com banners and other web-gadgets Skymike says no
 * Something to do with wagering - Shuktikajain did not wager anything and got it
 * Logging in at 3:13:13 - Shuktikajain did recieve it did login in at a complete different time
 * Having /dnd turned on
 * trying to falsely delete pirate
 * trying to log in falsely
 * Something to do with the cursed idol trinket. Yarrmate adds - not sure about this, as I've got the Cursed Idol Trinket, and not the Jinxed Idol trophy, and I think a hearty is the other way round. Sharktail adds - neither my Puppet on Sage nor Sharktail on Ice have ever been in an encounter with Barnabas the Pale, or any other Brigand King for that matter.
 * A lot of POE passing through the pirate's hands. Lewton9 adds - most likely not,

Theories that have been suggested
(Kornflake - The next 5 suggestions don't fit my circumstance, unless there is a long delay before rewarding idol)
 * Multiple triggers, with only N out of X triggers required
 * A lot of POE passing through the pirate's hands
 * a longer delay than simply "next login session" before it is awarded
 * Low experience / High efficiency trophy
 * Repeating the same action(s) in 2/3+ sessions (know as the "Deja Vu" theory)/Mique(viridian) adds: i loged in and did EXACTLY the same as my last session (even chat was almost a deja vu) and i foraged and won exactly same type and number of commodities and dont have it.
 * Something to do with idling out, or idling for some amount of time (note the idle/idol pun)
 * losing at least 5 matches in a row and loging out.
 * being marooned a set number of times (someone even put this on the trophy page!)
 * Having a Certain Number Of Sinks/Items Degrading
 * Certain # of sinks Without Injury?
 * Being rated close to #1 in the ocean in a puzzle for a long time, but never actually getting #1.
 * Being a pirate who has contributed in-game art, and whose art has been bought by other pirates.
 * Fighting zombies on a darkened island and losing an unknown amount of battles before finally besting them.

Unlikely suggestions
These suggestions would normally be considered unlikely because they reward a player for poor performance or bad behaviour... but on the other hand the name of the trophy has a negative connotation.
 * jinxed the ship by joining.... they went from winning (3 wins) to losing (2 losses)
 * A significant drop in standing
 * Frequent/many disconnects (would encourage players to deliberately disconnect)

Things we HOPE that they are not true

 * Trophy may be given out randomly - we really hope that's not it, but it has been awarded to a very diverse range of pirates and many players believe that it is random because no patterns have yet been found and confirmed.